MOF, Ministry of Finance (2022) Economic survey 2021-22. Ministry of Finance (MOF), New Delhi.
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For second year running, the Economic Survey was written under the cloud of the Covid-19 pandemic. These have been difficult times for the world economy. It is not just about the immediate disruptions and uncertainty caused by repeated waves of the pandemic, but also the longer-term uncertainty about the post-Covid world due to accelerated shifts in technology, consumer behaviour, supply-chains, geo-politics, climate change and a host of other factors. Not only are these individual factors difficult to forecast, the impact of their interactions are fundamentally unpredictable. The theme of this Economic Survey, therefore, relates to the art and science of policymaking under conditions of extreme uncertainty. The default mode of policy-making in India and most of the world has traditionally been to rely on a pre-determined “Waterfall” approach – an upfront analysis of the issue, detailed planning and finally meticulous implementation. This is the framework that underpins five-year plans and rigid urban master-plans. The problem is that the real world is a complex and unpredictable place buffeted by all kinds of random shocks and unintended consequences. The response of traditional economics was to create ever more detailed plans/regulations, and elaborate forecasting models despite more than adequate evidence that this did not improve outcomes. In his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, economist Friedrich Hayek dubbed this “The Pretence of Knowledge”.
| Item Type: | Documents |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Survey, Covid, Policy, Government of India (GOI), Trade, Sustainable Development, Climate Change, Agriculture, Food Management, Infrastructure, Services, Employment, Satellite, India, Economy, Development, Economic survey |
| Subjects: | Right to Resources |
| Depositing User: | Jeeva ICSF Rajan |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Feb 2022 12:17 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Feb 2022 12:19 |
| URI: | http://icsfarchives.net/id/eprint/11364 |
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